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Tampa, Orlando, Jacksonville near top of ‘likely to move’ list
IRVINE, Calif. – Aug. 16, 2018 – ATTOM Data Solutions’ Q2 2018 Pre-Mover Housing Index finds that Chicago, Washington, D.C., Orlando, Tampa-St. Petersburg and Atlanta posted the highest pre-mover index in the second quarter of 2018 in the larger-metro category. ATTOM says a high score is «predictive of a high percentage of homeowners moving in the third quarter.»
ATTOM’s quarterly report looks at 36 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) with at least 500,000 single-family homes and condos using data collected from purchase loan applications on residential real estate transactions.
The Pre-Mover Housing Index is based on the ratio of homes with a «pre-mover» indicator compared to total single-family homes and condos in a given geography, indexed off the national average. An index above 100 is above the national average and indicates an above-average ratio of homes that will likely be sold in the next 90 days in a given market.
Among a broader set of 131 metro areas with at least 100,000 single family homes and condos, those posting the highest pre-mover index in Q2 2018 were Wilmington, N.C. (206); Colorado Springs, Colo. (178); and Manchester-Nashua, N.H. (172); followed by Chicago (168) and Washington, D.C. (166).
«A higher pre-mover index bodes well for local real estate agents, home improvement stores, moving companies and others that benefit from the halo effect of a home sale,» said Daren Blomquist, senior vice president at ATTOM Data Solutions.
«Meanwhile markets with a low pre-mover index likely have a scarcity of inventory available to buy or relatively weak demand from prospective buyers – or some combination of both – which is not optimal for businesses that rely on the home sale halo effect,» Blomquist adds.
ATTOM has a pre-mover heat map on its website that displays the likelihood of home sales by city.
States with the highest pre-mover index in the second quarter of 2018 – predictive of a high percentage of homeowners moving in the third quarter – were North Dakota (275), Illinois (193), Nevada (164), Virginia (163), and Colorado (147). Other states with a pre-mover index among the 10 highest in Q2 2018 were New Jersey (133), Florida (133), Delaware (130), Maryland (127), and Utah (124).
Florida cities ranked by pre-mover index ranking
- Orlando-Kissimmee: 136
- Jacksonville: 136
- Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater: 133
- Lakeland-Winter Haven: 126
- Ocala: 109
- Port St. Lucie: 100
- Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville: 95
- Cape Coral-Fort Myers: 91
- Deltona-Dayton Beach-Ormond Beach: 90
- Bradenton-Sarasota-Venice: 87
- Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach: 85
- Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent: 65
- Fort Walton Beach-Crestview-Destin: 58
- Naples-Marco Island: 53
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